摘要: 目的研究典型荒漠物种地理分布变化及驱动因素，可为恢复荒漠植被提供科学依据、�/sec> 方法本文以乌兰布和沙漠优势植物沙蒿为研究对象，通过实地调查及遥感影像识别的方法收集整理沙蒿灌丛的地理分布数据，结合29个环境变量数据，筛选得到最优物种分布模型。采用最优模型，基于NorESM1-M气候模式，预测了在两种排放情景下、不同时期乌兰布和沙漠沙蒿灌丛的潜在适宜区，分析得到其适宜分布的主要环境因子阈值范围；预测未来气候变化对沙蒿灌丛潜在地理分布的影响，并划分适宜分布区、�/sec> 结果沙蒿灌丛地理分布的决定因子为年均温，适宜区间�?.4 ~ 9.0 ℃，最适值为8.4 ℃。主要自然驱动因子是坡度及最湿润季节平均温度，温度因子相对于降雨量因子更为重要。在2050s RCP2.6排放模式下，沙蒿灌丛的质心将向西南方向迁�?.55 km，随着CO ₂排放强度增强，将转向北迁�?.21 km，到2070s，在RCP2.6排放模式下，沙蒿灌丛的质心将向东北方向迁�?.60 km，随着CO ₂排放强度增强，将继续向北迁移0.83 km。随着时间推移及气候变暖，沙蒿适宜生境不断破碎化且适宜生境面积逐渐缩减，更多的适宜生境退化为低适宜或不适宜生境、�/sec> 结论针对沙蒿适宜区将缩减的变化趋势，应密切关注乌兰布和沙漠气候变化对沙蒿灌丛分布区的影响，开展相应生态恢复研究。当前高、中适宜区应积极种植沙蒿，不适宜区应在经济技术可行的前提下积极发展其他本土植被，或通过改善沙地质地等方式提高其适宜性。在未来气候变暖的趋势下，应加强生态监测，根据分布区变化情况采取措施积极应对，以提高区域植被覆盖率，形成良性循环，最终达到恢复荒漠植被、提高生态系统稳定性、发挥其生态功能的目的、�/sec>

关键诌�
• 乌兰布和沙漠/
• 最大熵模型/
• 沙蒿/
• 响应/
• 贡献玆�/a>

Abstract: ObjectiveBy studying the changes of geographical distribution of typical desert species and their driving factors, we can provide scientific basis for the restoration of desert vegetation. MethodIn this paper, Artemisia desertorum, the dominant plant in Ulanbuh Desert of northwestern China, was taken as the research object. The geographical distribution data of A. desertorumwere collected and sorted out through field investigation and remote sensing image recognition. Combined with 29 environmental variables, the optimal species distribution model was obtained, and the optimal model was adopted. Based on the Noresm1-M climate model, the potential distribution of A. desertorumin different periods under two emission scenarios was predicted, and the threshold range of major environmental factors for its suitable distribution was analyzed, and the impact of future climate change on the potential geographical distribution of A. desertorumshrub was predicted, and it was divided into suitable distribution areas. ResultThe maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was the best one to simulate the geographical distribution of A. desertorumshrub. The annual average temperature was the determining factor of the geographical distribution of A. desertorumshrub. The suitable range of annual average temperature was 7.4�?.0 �? and the threshold was 8.4 �? The main natural driving factors were slope and average temperature in the wettest season, and temperature was more important than rainfall. In the 2050s, under RCP2.6 emission mode, the centroid of A. desertorumshrub will migrate 4.55 km to the southwest, and with the increase of CO ₂emission intensity, it will migrate 1.21 km northward. By the 2070s, the centroid of A. desertorumshrub will migrate 2.60 km to northeast under the RCP2.6 emission mode. With the increase of CO ₂emission intensity, it will turn to migrate 0.83 km northward. With the passage of time and the warming of climate, the suitable habitat of A. desertorumwas continuously fragmented and the suitable habitat area was gradually reduced, and more suitable habitat was degraded to low or unsuitable habitat. ConclusionWith the shrink of A. desertorum’s most suitable area, the impact of climate change in Ulanbuh Desert on the distribution area of A. desertorumshrub should be closely observed, and the corresponding ecological restoration research should be carried out. At present, the high and moderate suitable areas should be actively planted with A. desertorum, and the unsuitable areas should actively develop other local vegetation under the premise of economic and technological feasibility, or improve their suitability by improving the sandy geology. Under the trend of future climate warming, ecological monitoring should be strengthened, and measures should be taken to actively respond to the changes in the distribution area, so as to improve the regional vegetation coverage and form a virtuous cycle, and finally achieve the goal of restoring desert vegetation, improving the stability of the ecosystem and giving full play to its ecological functions.

Key words:
• Ulanbuh Desert/
• MaxEnt/
• Artemisia desertorum/
• response/
• contribution rate

�?nbsp; 1沙蒿灌丛点位分布

Figure 1.Point distribution ofArtemisia desertorumshrub

下载: 全尺寸图牆�/a> 幻灯牆�/a>

�?nbsp; 2物种分布模型精度对比

横坐标为模型名称。GLM.广义线性模型；RF.随机森林；SVM.支持向量机；Maxent.最大熵模型。The abscissa is the model name. GLM, generalized linear model; RF, random forest; SVM, support vector machine; Maxent, maximum entropy model.

Figure 2.Accuracy comparison of species distribution models

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�?nbsp; 3沙蒿对主要环境变量的响应曲线

Figure 3.Response curves ofArtemisia desertorumto main environmental variables

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�?nbsp; 4沙蒿在不同气候情景下的适宜区分市�/p>

Figure 4.Suitable distribution area ofArtemisia desertorumunder different climate scenarios

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�?nbsp; 5沙蒿灌丛在不同气候情景下迁移趋势示意国�/p>

Figure 5.Schematic diagram of migration trend ofArtemisia desertorumunder different climate scenarios

下载: 全尺寸图牆�/a> 幻灯牆�/a>

�?nbsp; 1用于建模环境变量一览表

Table 1.List of environment variables used for modeling

序号 No.	类型 Type	环境因子 Environment factor	方差膨胀因子 Variance inflation factor (VIF)	值范図�br/>Range of value
1	气候因孏�br/>Climate factor	年均� Annual mean temperature (bio1)	5.12	7.39 ~ 9.56 ℂ�/td>
2		最湿润季节平均温度 Mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8)	7.55	18.88 ~ 24.60 ℂ�/td>
3		最干燥季节平均温度 Mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9)	4.58	�?.50 ~ �?.31 ℂ�/td>
4		最干燥月降雨量 Precipitation of the driest month (bio14)	7.35	0 ~ 3 mm
5		降水量季节变� Seasonal variation of precipitation (bio15)	9.04	83.22 ~ 112.55 mm
6		最冷季节平均温� Mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio19)	2.68	0 ~ 10 ℂ�/td>
7	地形因子 Topography factor	坡向 Aspect (aspect)	1.32	平地，北，东北，东， 东南，南，西南，西，西北 Flat land, north, northeast, east, southeast, south, southwest, west, northwest
8		海拔 Elevation (dem)	5.21	968 ~ 1 711 m
9		坡度 Slope (slope)	1.06	0° ~ 71.14°
10	土壤因子 Soil factor	土壤黏粒 Soil clay (clay)	1.75	77 ~ 269 g/kg
11		总氮 Total N (TN)	3.49	0 ~ 338 g/kg
12		总钾 Total K (TK)	1.74	0 ~ 2 460 g/kg
13		总磷 Total P (TP)	1.71	0 ~ 92 g/kg
14	其他立地因子 Other site factors	陆表水分指数 Land surface moisture index (LSWI)	1.29	0 ~ 255
15		植被指数 Vegetation index (NDVI)	1.43	�? ~ 1
16		地下水位 Underground water level	1.79	0 ~ 10 m

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�?nbsp; 2沙蒿灌丛环境因子贡献率及重要�?/p>

Table 2.Contribution rate and importance of environmental factors ofArtemisia desertorumshrub

环境变量 Environment variable	贡献玆�br/>Contribution rate/%	重要�?br/>Importance		环境变量 Environment variable	贡献玆�br/>Contribution rate/%	重要�?br/>Importance
bio1	33.70	43.80		bio19	1.50	5.60
slope	28.20	7.50		aspect	1.30	1.70
bio8	11.40	2.70		dem	1.10	12.20
NDVI	5.90	5.70		TP	0.90	0
LSWI	5.00	8.90		bio9	0.90	0.50
TN	3.30	1.40		clay	0.60	2.00
地下水水佌�br/>Underground water level	2.90	3.10		TK	0.40	0.80
bio15	2.70	3.10		bio14	0.20	1.00
注：重要性是指训练得到一个模型之后，不同特征变量对预测结果的影响大小。Notes: importance refers to the influence of different characteristic variables on the prediction results after the training of a model.

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�?nbsp; 3沙蒿当前气候情景适宜分布区面�?/p>

Table 3.Suitable distribution area ofArtemisia desertorumunder current climate scenarios

适宜� Suitability	当前面积 Current area/km2	比例 Ratio/%
不适宜� Unsuitable area	64.59	43.42
低适宜� Low-suitable area	65.57	44.08
中适宜� Medium-suitable area	11.80	7.93
高适宜� High-suitable area	6.79	4.57
合计 Total	148.76	100.00

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